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2007年01月04日

円高への転換をいつまで引っ張るのかという

トヨタが今年はトップになるという躍進ぶりを見せ、以前の貿易摩擦からの驚異的な円高を否応なく連想させられるけれども、今為替は、日本の低金利継続と欧米の金利上昇の中で投機的な円安ユーロ高に向かう流れが止まらない。

産業的にはもちろん円安が日本企業と対抗する上で不利なのだろうが、基本的に好景気であることから、それ以上に優先すべき事項のために円安を容認しているように見える。

要は、日本における円安株安という状況を継続させている間にいかに日本に大きく資本を注入してから株高に向かわせて、最終的に日本を食った後に円高に持っていくかという一連の流れがあるのではないかと。

日本の一般人にとっては割とどうでもいいが、巨大輸出企業にとってはこの流れの中で、円安が継続している間にどうするかというのが勝負所と見ているのではないか。欧米の中に、どうやって円安の状況下で食い込んで軸となるか、という難しい問題に挑んでいる状況だろう。

技術で先行する自動車やハイテク産業などではやりようはあるとしても、それ以外のところや規模的に大したことのない企業は業績を上げて高く売るしかやることがないかも知れない。

円高に向かうその瞬間が来たときは個人投機家としても勝負所になるわけだが、一体どの時点で米国資本の目標が達成されたと見なされるのか、また、一部の逸脱などで否応なく円高の流れに向かっていくのか、それを見極めることが重要だと思う。

投稿者 so-go : 2007年01月04日 20:53

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