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2010年01月10日

PS4の基本設計がどうなるか話題になってるけど

CELL拡張版以外の選択肢って無理筋じゃないの?いくらFermiでもSPEの代わりになるようなもんではないでしょうし。

まずPS4が必要としている、あるいは達成したい仕様はなんなのか想像してみる。

性能については、そのときのPCゲームレベルかそれ以上のゲームが作れること。3DTVや4K2Kに対応させても十分なゲームが作れること。
価格はPS3のときのような6万円や7万円といったレベルではなくもっと安価であること。
機能については4K2Kの出力、アップコンバートに対応できること。PS2、PS3のゲームをほぼ完全に動かせること。
開発が現在のPS3より容易であること。

そうなると、CPU性能もGPU性能もピークでPS3の4倍以上程度、しかも低コストで扱いやすく互換がとれる、ということになる。そこでCELL以外を持ってくると互換をとるのは非常に難しい。互換をとらない選択肢ももちろんあるが、その場合はPS3市場が死に筋になったりBlu-rayの普及自体に影響を与えるリスクがあるのでやめたほうがいいんじゃないかとは思う。

SCEがデベロッパーにCELLの改良版を積むとしたらどこを改善して欲しいかというヒアリングをしたという話があるが、その内容はもちろんわからないが、実際にCELLでプログラミングをしている人々がよく言うのはとにかくLSの容量がもっとあればいいのに、ということだ。せめて1MBあればかなり楽になるしいろいろなことができると。LSの容量を増やすのがどの程度の難度があるのかわからないが、そこは確実に改善すべきところだろう。

2012年~2013年をターゲットとしているとすると、32nmプロセス世代からだろうか。LSを増量した上でダイサイズは200mm^2以下に抑えるとすると、PPEは増やさずにSPEを24基程度に増やすということくらいしかできない。仮に7基から23基に増やすと3.3倍あることになる。動作周波数を4GHz程度に上げれば4倍はなんとか達成できる。

逆に他のCPUを持ってくる場合、SPEのような高機能なコアでそのような性能を達成するのは困難だろう。むしろピーク性能でPS3とさほど変わらないくらいであれば世代交代などしないほうがいい。

他の方法というと、LSを複数のSPEでシェアするという考え方もある。この場合はPS3よりレイテンシが増えないようにするという技術的な困難もあるし、そもそもスケーラブルであるCELLのアーキテクチャの将来性をぶち壊すという気がする。しかしPS2のGSのエミュレートにSPEが使えるという利点はありそう。

GPU側はメモリのバス幅を抑えるためにGDDR5を使うことを考えるとNVIDIAではFermi世代以降を持ってくることになる。こちらもダイサイズを200mm^2以下と考えると、32nm世代では128~192sp(CUDA Core)程度だろうし、ターゲット性能的にもギリギリ許せるラインではないか。128bitで4GHz~5GHzのGDDR5、帯域は64~80GB/sといったところか。PS2のエミュレートに堪えうるのかどうかは微妙な線ではある。

しかしまあ、例えば仮に上記程度の仕様のPS4が2012年に4万円~5万円で発売されるとすると、PS3のソフト開発のノウハウも生かせるのでPS3の市場に悪影響を与えにくいだろうし、PS2/3との互換、アプコンなどを考えれば十分魅力的で、PS3に参入したデベロッパーが良質なゲームを供給していくことにもなり、いいんじゃないでしょうか?

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